Welcome to Coriolis Research
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Market Research and Management Consulting |
Coriolis Research Ltd. is a market research and strategic management consulting firm providing quantitative and qualitative research to clients in the food and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) supply chain, from primary producers to retailers and foodservice providers. Areas of expertise include food, beverages, health and beauty aids, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, household products, paper products, and selected consumer durables.
Coriolis Research is based in Auckland, New Zealand and provides services to clients in New Zealand, Australia, South East Asia and the United States.
For Coriolis Healthcare, click here. If you experience trouble opening any pdf files on this site, please update to the latest version of either Acrobat or Foxit.
Information about our reports is available here...
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Today's NBR article, Discretionary spending holds key to Pumpkin Patch profits, quotes Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris on expectations for Pumpkin Patch results released tomorrow:
"Coriolis Research head Timothy Morris says: “The key question is whether children’s clothes are a discretionary spend.”
He adds that he had been given the impression that a key element of Pumpkin Patch’s sales was grandparents buying for grandchildren.
Mr Morris says as Pumpkin Patch was really an international player, New Zealand's retail economy only had some impact on the results.
“The UK and the US are both in a bit of a pickle. Australia is still doing all right –they’re six months behind New Zealand on catching the global flu. The question is how badly are they going to catch what is going around?” he says.
New Zealand retailers had said the Christmas period was alright, which boded well for the company’s sales figures, he says."
Friday, February 06, 2009
A Macquarie analyst report in Australia, discussed the future of the three existing Woolworths brands in New Zealand (Woolworths, Foodtown and Countdown), triggered a Dominion Post article, Progressive may be counting down. This article quoted Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris:
"Tim Morris, of retail research company Coriolis, said that when Woolworths bought Progressive three years ago many people expected them to rebrand all of the supermarkets as Woolworths.
"But when they did their research they [probably] found that Woolworths was not a strong brand in Auckland and had an association with being the highest-priced supermarket in New Zealand," he said.
Progressive has converted two of its stores its flagship Greenlane store in Auckland and one at Botany Downs into Countdowns.
It was positioning the Countdown brand somewhere between the budget Pak 'n Save and the more upmarket New World both brands of its rival Foodstuffs, Mr Morris said.
With nearly 150 supermarkets nationwide, even at a rate of 15 supermarkets a year, it would take Progressive about a decade to totally rebrand to Countdown, he said."
Tim notes that not included in the story, but also discussed were (1) the history of the Roelf Vos, Purity, Fleming, Food For Less and Safeway brands in Australia under Woolworths, (2) the ongoing reduction in the number of supermarket brands in New Zealand (e.g. Big Fresh), and (3) past Coriolis consumer research on price perception by supermarket brand.
Historic Coriolis reports, including 2003, 2005 and 2008, have more on the subject for those interested.
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
An article in today's Herald discussing the latest results of the Briscoe Group said:
"Briscoe satisfied with year-end result... Briscoe Group delivers its full year result on March 16. In September it reported that its net profit for the first six months of the year was $3.09 million, down from $10.53 million in the corresponding period in 2007.
Managing director of Coriolis Research, Tim Morris, said Briscoe Group was operating in two particularly tough retail sectors and yesterday's sales figures could have been much worse.
Homewares stores such as Briscoes and Living & Giving were suffering from the housing market downturn.
"We're just not seeing household formation or immigration, or people moving and upgrading, renovating, that kind of thing. That's had a knock-on effect on all of those sectors." The sporting goods sector was also struggling because it was a discretionary spend."
Monday, January 19, 2009
In an article titled Hold the crayfish, bring the bangers, Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris is quoted:
"Consumers are abandoning the hunt for fine food as they seek ways to reduce their weekly food bills, one retail analyst says.
The recession has prompted an about-turn in eating habits with Kiwis' once-indulgent dining lifestyle quickly being replaced by a penchant for takeaways and supermarket shelves, Coriolis Research retail analyst Tim Morris said.
"In a downturn, people always trade down. That means fewer working lunches, fewer mid-week meals out. On the flipside, in principle it means growth for fast-food chains and supermarkets.
"We've moved into the traditional post-Christmas rain shadow when business is slow and money is tight. It's more of a drought though this time round and we'll certainly start seeing more liquidations across the retail and hospitality space."
Friday, January 16, 2009
One of our Japanese readers kindly sent us a copy of three Japanese reports which cite from our report, "Toward private label success." Some examples:
While we struggle to read them, we appreciate the publicity. All of our readers should feel free to cite from our work. Please send us a copy if your work is in the public domain.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
The Sunday Star Times quotes Coriolis in a story titled "Bring it on, say retailers awaiting buying frenzy." Retailers are hoping for four days of Christmas shopping frenzy as new figures reveal people are spending less than usual this festive season.
But even if shoppers come out in force ahead of Christmas Day, Boxing Day is set to be a bargain bonanza as nervous retailers look to slash prices to entice customers before the economic recession worsens...
However, retail analysts say that the Boxing Day sales are where people could get some great bargains and it is the time to beat the expected New Year price surge for big-ticket items...
Retail analyst Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, told the Sunday Star-Times the last seven days of the year will be the final chance for consumers and retailers to do well in the face of a worsening economy and the falling dollar.
But Morris warned that not all Boxing Day bargain-hunters will find what they're looking for. He said retailers are carrying less stock than usual because of warnings about tougher economic times.
Although times are getting tougher for retailers, the pain isn't evenly spread. Morris said the effects of the New Zealand recession and global financial crisis are hitting hardest in urban areas and in the north of the country.
"Across all retail, the south is doing better and the more rural areas," said Morris, adding that urban professionals, whose jobs were more likely to be tightly linked to finance and trade, were feeling the pinch most and cutting back on spending.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Today's New Zealand Herald featured an article titled "Christmas sales come early" in which Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris is quoted:
"The economic downturn and added competition are causing retailers to offer bargains in Christmas week...
Retail analyst Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, said the deep discounting which began as early as November was just a sign of things to come.
"Some of the retailers are definitely trying to move product now because they can see that it's going to be easier to sell something before Christmas than it's ever going to be able to sell in January or February.
"With financing drying up, if you hit a rough patch, the banks aren't going to be there to bail you out. And so I think there's a few around right now that are living at the discretion of the banks. I think we're going to see a few people drop their pants early in terms of sales, looking at the number of signs around.
"People who are leaving their shopping to the last minute may actually be the ones that get the best deals."
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Radio Live's Bill Ralston conducted an interview with Coriolis' own Tim Morris on the latest Statistics NZ inflation data showing continued increases in food prices. While Bill asked if the supermarket duopoly was to blame, Tim pointed the finger at the falling New Zealand dollar and American attempts to make fuel from grains (actually more like turning subsidies into fuel - a dubious economic proposition). We have graphed some of the data, shown below:
Looking at the above chart, it is instructive to compare the movement of foodservice (the yellow line) and beverages (the red line) with the more export oriented sectors.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
The arrival of the United Kingdom's leading optical chain in the New Zealand market prompted TVNZ ONE News to conduct an interview with Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris.
If you wear glasses and you're sick of paying too much for them, change is on the way. New Zealand's $300 million optical industry is in for a shake-up with the arrival of a big new global player. They're the world's largest privately-owned optical group and Specsavers has big plans for the local market...
"The economy's slowing, people are feeling the pinch in their pocketbook, and here's a chance to get your eyeglasses for a little bit cheaper. So I think they're probably going to do very well in the current climate," says Tim Morris, Coriolis Research Analyst.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Retailers hope Christmas will erase a wretched year
"The Christmas sales period could save retailers from a terrible year as household costs fall, but salvation is far from certain. Hallenstein Glasson and Briscoe Group yesterday posted drops in quarterly sales, as shops continued to feel the effects of a downturn in consumer spending...
Analyst Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, said retailers were in a "weird period" now after over a year in the doldrums.
"If you look at last year, the economy was slowing, and there was a slowing in retail, but then we had a cracker Christmas, on target almost with previous years. But then all of the money oxygen came out of the retail sector in January, February and March."
Signs of a recovery reversed again when the US economy struck trouble. "I don't think this Christmas is going to be as big as last Christmas in terms of just absolute dollars, let alone any inflation-adjusted dollars.
"I think this Christmas we're going to see people in the middle and upper incomes starting to have some concerns - 'hold on a minute - the value of my house is down, the value of my share portfolio is down. I have some questions about my job therefore maybe I just won't reach quite as deep into the pockets to spend' - all of those things add up," Morris said."
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Woolworths loses executive; boosts revenue by 9.6%
Woolworths bid farewell to one of its oldest veterans as the company released its first quarter results today... The company has posted revenues of $A12.8 billion for the first quarter, a boost of 9.6% over this time last year...
Mr Luscombe said discretionary spending would continue to be influenced by macro-economic factors in global financial markets and projects sales growth for the year to remain in the single digits.
Whether this guidance offers any clue to the Woolworths’ attempted takeover of The Warehouse is unclear. The company withdrew its appeal to the Supreme Court over the Commerce Commission block last week, following The Warehouse’s dissolution of the Warehouse Extra concept, but refused to comment any further to NBR.
Tim Coriolis of Coriolis Research believes that now that the main competition block to the takeover is gone, there’s no reason Woolworths takeover attempt cannot continue.
“Money is not a problem [for Woolworths], no matter the economic climate,” he said.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Housing slump puts DIY stores at risk
"Plummeting house prices could see the home improvement havens for the DIY enthusiast become the next big casualty in the retailing sector's continuing slump...
Retail analyst Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, agreed to an extent.
"It will be a sector hurt more than others but it doesn't leap out at me as one that would deserve any kind of special treatment."
Figures from Statistics New Zealand show DIY spend has been tracking down with the retail sector. Sales were up 5.4 per cent in January on the same month last year, but the trend has reversed dramatically. The latest figures, for July, show a 6.1 per cent drop-off from a year earlier.
The figures exclude floor coverings such as carpets, which together with furniture sales, fell 14.5 per cent in July.
Morris said the big box DIY stores, which rely more heavily on bulk sales to tradespeople and commercial operators, could feel the pinch more than the small neighbourhood stores for the home handyman."
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Jemma Dempsey of Radio Live's The World at Noon interviewed Coriolis Research Director Tim Morris on the announced partnership between Rachel Hunter and the Warehouse to launch a range of Rachel Hunter branded clothing. Tim cited a number of examples of the many global precedents for the partnership, including the partnership between ASDA and Next founder Gerorge Davies in the early 90's and the Target team-up with Isaac Mizrahi.
Other interesting facts discussed include: apparel currently makes up about 25% of the Warehouse's sales, apparel is a $3.5b category in New Zealand and the Warehouse currently has an approximate total apparel category share of 10%.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Today's Dominion Post featured an article titled "Woolies finds Kiwi front hard yakka"on the experience of Woolworths Australia in the three years since it entered the New Zealand market. In this, Tim Morris from Coriolis is quoted:
"Tim Morris, of specialist retail research company Coriolis, has compared Progressive's published sales figures with total supermarket sales data from Statistics NZ between 2003 and 2008. While Progressive's sales have grown by 23 percent over the period, the supermarket sector as a whole including independents as well as Foodstuffs grew by 37 percent. "Foodstuffs has been growing significantly faster than Progressive," Morris says.
He has done work for both companies and describes himself as neutral. "They (Woolworths) talked some good talk when they came in and bought the business. But they've yet to deliver on the market share gains."...
Progressive has come together through various mergers and acquisitions over the past two decades and it along with some of its predecessor companies has had a number of owners, including Hong Kong's Dairy Farm Group and Australia's Coles Myer and Foodland Associates.
Because having the best sites is crucial in the supermarket game, this legacy of changing ownership has had a big impact on the situation today, Morris says. "Most people go to the closest supermarket or the one on their way home from work."
"Foodstuffs has been investing in property for 20 or 30 years. But Progressive in its previous incarnations sold off their property and didn't invest in the future. When Woolworths bought the business there wasn't a portfolio of future sites waiting to be developed. Supermarket retailing is like trench warfare. You've got to just keep throwing waves of troops into the trenches."
He accepts it's taken Woolworths almost three years to sort things because the Progressive systems were bad. "The jury is out to date. Certainly their (Woolworths) track record in Australia suggests you wouldn't count them out."
ADDITION: Following a number of requests and as a special feature to our online readers, the Coriolis charts cited in the artcle are available here.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
The business section of today's New Zealand Herald featured an article on "Making Money in the Land of Oz" which looked at the experience of New Zealand companies expanding into Australia. In it, Coriolis analyst Tim Morris is quoted:
"Retail analyst Tim Morris said a barrier was the shock of scale. Morris, of Coriolis Research, said it was simply not an "elegant" scale to go from a market of 4 million to one of 20 million. With buying often done nationally, the transition is a big one for his retailing and food industry clients.
"If you want to see Woolworths, you go to their buying office in Sydney and they're buying for all of Australia in Sydney. They're not saying, 'um, I really want to screw around and do a lot of paperwork and just stock this in five stores'. They're saying, 'I want to stock this in all of my stores, how quickly can you supply me?'"...
For all its challenges, Australia can give ambitious New Zealand companies a self-esteem boost. Said Coriolis Research's Morris: "If you can't succeed in Australia, you're certainly not going to succeed anywhere else. There's no real difference between [Australia and New Zealand] culturally, it's just the size issue. Once you crack that you can then go on to try and crack the US, or the UK, or Canada."
Friday, August 29, 2008
Coriolis regularly reviews the results and strategies of all the key Australasian supermarket retailers as part of our ongoing knowledge building activities.
From this, and other research, Coriolis publishes an overview of the key Australasian supermarket retailers on a semi-regular basis (see our research section for past editions).
Comments from our clients and other industry participants, as well as the log files from our website, indicates this review is of significant use to a wide range of people and companies.
For the 2008 edition, we put more effort into developing the “so what?” element of our research; this was published as “Australasian supermarket industry: Backwater, Behemoth or Beachhead?” as presented at The Leading Edge’s Future Retail Australasia conference May 2008.
Today, we have released the appendix to that document, Australasian supermarket retailing review 2008.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Today's National Business Review quotes Tim Morris of Coriolis in an article about the future of Liquorland, saying...
"But any move on Liquorland will pit Woolworths against rival grocer Foodstuffs, which owns Duffy and Finns and the Henry’s bottlestore chains.
Tim Morris, an analyst at Coriolis Research, describes the Liquorland purchase as a "Plan B" for the two grocers, especially if the drawnout battle to acquire The Warehouse ends unsuccessfully.
Mr Morris says the reason the liquor retail landscape doesn’t match Australia’s grocer duopoly between Coles and Woolworths is the reluctance of New Zealand liquor companies to sell their retail arms, and resource management difficulties, rather than any Commerce Commission concerns.
“Lion Nathan and DB Breweries have been through the twin shocks of losing wine and beer exclusivity to the supermarkets. The worst has passed, and I think they realise that owning your own retail outfit isn’t going to protect their margins, nor are spirits alone going to be a silver bullet,” Mr Morris said.
DB Breweries, however, is looking to sell on its own terms – retaining its product lines in the store after the sale.
“To Woolworths and Foodstuffs the locations are everything. The [Resource Management Act] makes it so difficult to just set up shop these days. It makes far more sense to purchase an existing business, complete with locations, management and buying power. They both want to be in a powerful position instead of getting into a long, hard slog,” says Mr Morris.
NBR understands Foodstuffs and Woolworths are the only realistic purchasers involved, and that DB Breweries may be using the talk of “several” buyers to drive a hard bargain.
Of the two, Morris believes Woolworths is the leading bidder.
“It has the money, and needs the land more than Foodstuffs does – Foodstuffs is quite asset rich, and has been buying up land with an eye to 20 years from now.
“Progressive has haemorrhaged land through a variety of owners over the years, and Woolworths would like to convert more of its equity to land,” says Morris.
Friday, August 01, 2008
Yesterday's announcement by the High Court upholding the Commerce Commission's decision blocking the acquisition of the Warehouse by either Woolworths Australia or Foodstuffs New Zealand was headline news across Australasia. The decision also drove down the Warehouse's shareprice. TVNZ's morning Breakfast show featured an intervew with Coriolis's Tim Morris on the implications of the decision for the consumer.
Of course the whole "Warehouse gets into grocery" saga is old news to readers of our newsletter.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
The New Zealand Herald today published an article titled "Red Shed returns to e-tailing in bid for online cash" about the return of The Warehouse Group to internet retailing.
"Retail analyst Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, said The Warehouse had some complicated logistics to overcome.
"Internet retailing in New Zealand is behind where it is in other countries, and that's got nothing to do, I think, with the innate willingness of New Zealanders to buy things online. I think where it falls over is in the execution."
A population of four million made scaling the online operation tricky.
"There's really not a lot of good models in New Zealand for New Zealand-based companies doing everything right, especially as you get closer and closer to moving real things, not just nominal things like airline tickets."
But Morris said The Warehouse had a reputation for strong distribution and logistics."
Tim notes that he cited Ezibuy as an example of an Australasian leader in online retailing, but this didn't make it into the article.
In addition to past client work on internet commerce for an range of retailers, in 2000 Coriolis published (at the time) the definitive report on the future of "eGrocery: Evolution, Revolution or Hallucination?" available here.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Due to overwelming demand, we have added an online purchase option, accepting all major credit cards, for our Costco Australia report.
You can read all about the arrival of Costco in Australia in our past newsletter and all about our report here.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Radio Live's Bill Ralston interviewed Coriolis Research's Tim Morris on the ongoing slowdown in New Zealand retailing.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Coriolis Research's own Tim Morris appeared on TVNZ's News at 8pm discussing the retail slowdown and its implications for retailers, consumers and the economy. Highlights included a mention of famed Austrian economist Joseph Alois "Creative Destriction" Schumpeter and advice to "pull up your socks."
The complete interview can be viewed here:
Saturday, July 5, 2008
The front page of today's New Zealand Herald screamed "Bargains Galore" and stated that "Shoppers with cash to spare stand to gain from a growing retail downturn, as stores discount in droves to lure customers back. Consumers have closed their wallets this year because increased living costs are squeezing household budgets."
The story went on: "Retail analyst Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, said the rash of sales was a normal reaction to the early phase of a slump. "It's the belief that somehow the reason people aren't buying is because the price isn't cheap enough, and if we can only get the price cheap enough then they will buy... When there's a slowdown, they're just sort of scrummaging for a smaller pool of customers. To keep their sales constant, they've got to fight for a bigger slice of a smaller pie"... Businesses most reliant on discretionary spending are feeling the pain worst. Sales of appliances - the worst affected sector - were down 15 per cent in March from the same period last year. A second article in the business section also quoted Morris.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Radio Live's Bill Ralston interviewed Coriolis Research's Tim Morris about the ongoing period of food price inflation New Zealand is experiencing.
As we have been getting a large number of calls from our friends in the media about food price inflation, we prepared a small number of charts to bring some perspective to the issue.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Today's Foodweek quotes Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris in "Unit pricing is the industry concession to see off latest grocery inquiry" :
"The streamlined planning laws make some sense... Landbanking is not really such an issue in Australia. As Tim Morris, MD of Coriolis Research, told a recent retail forum in Sydney, you have a major problem in the UK where it is difficult to find new supermarket sites that don’t involve knocking over a 13th century church.
The only market in Australia that suffers from physical constraints is Sydney. Urban renewal is costly and problematic, especially where local planning authorities are involved, but the major retailers have not been inclined to amass landbanks a la Tesco here."
Just to set the record straignt, Tim claims he actualls said: "There isn't really any lack of usable land in Australia, unlike say the U.K., where you can't swing a cat without knocking down a 13th Century church." We're not sure which quote is better..
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The Port Macquarie station of Australia's ABC radio interviewed Coriolis MD Tim Morris on "How Supermarkets Work." Discussion included what gets ranged, what gets specialed and what goes on end aisle displays.
Friday, May 23, 2008
In an article titled "History points to a sitting Dux" today's Sydney Morning Herald quoted Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris speaking about Woolworth's trial concept Dux the Grocer.
"IF HISTORY is any guide, Woolworths' new upmarket grocery spin-off, Thomas Dux, will fail, a retail expert has said. Tim Morris, from Coriolis Research in Auckland, told industry colleagues this week no "middle market" retailer in the world had made a success of an upmarket, small-format store. The offshoot, combining a delicatessen and fruit and vegetable providore, would have to buck the trend of mass-market retailers failing to appeal to upmarket tastes.
Mr Morris said Thomas Dux was an example of the two major grocery retailers' "scramble to find growth" since consolidation of the market had left few acquisition opportunities.
Coles and Woolworths had 76 per cent of the grocery, convenience and liquor market, he said. "I don't think Thomas Dux will work for them. The middle market retailers that have tried to go upmarket didn't succeed."
Mr Morris compared the move to that of US chain Safeway's launch of upmarket providore Bon Appetit in California in the 1980s. "[Safeway management] couldn't think upmarket because they were mid-market," he said. The ill-fated chain, which was linked with a gourmet magazine of the same name, sold fine foods rarely found in supermarkets as well as tableware, aprons and cookbooks. Mr Morris said Woolworths' rival Coles was not expected to follow with a similar format. "They don't have the appetite for it right now," he said.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
The Australian Associated Press quoted Coriolis Research Managing Director Tim Morris in an article titled "Third force to enter supermarket sector."
Coriolis Research chief executive Tim Morris told conference delegates, the Australian market is the second most concentrated in the world after New Zealand. NZ has only two key players - Woolworths and Foodstuffs NZ Ltd.
According to NZ-based Coriolis, Woolworths has a 40 per cent share of the Australasian grocery market share across convenience, liquor and supermarkets (excluding petrol). This outstripped rival Coles, with 26 per cent, followed by Metcash on 14 per cent, Foodstuffs on seven per cent and Germany's Aldi on two per cent.
Mr Morris said there were barriers to further consolidation in the Australasian supermarket sector, including the current ownership structure of retailers, government and regulatory hurdles, as well as few potential takeover targets.
But Aldi, which has been operating in Australia since 2001, could be a potential third player. Aldi has a three per cent Australian market share with 160 stores and aims to roll out up to 650 stores.
Mr Morris said other European low cost supermarket chains, such as Germany's Lidl or Denmark's Netto, could follow in Aldi's footsteps to Australia. "So far it is just Aldi but if I were Aldi's number two I would be making a move," he said. "Aldi has achieved success in Australia relative to some of its other markets and it can continue to grow."
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Today's Sydney Morning Herald featured an article titled "Aldi biting into the grocery market" In that article Coriolis's Tim Morris presentation to the Future Retail conference was quoted.
"The German retailer Aldi is aiming for up to 1000 stores in Australia, which would give it about 15 per cent of the grocery market, said the head of a company that specialises in helping food companies with growth strategies. Speaking on the future of retail at a conference in Sydney yesterday, Coriolis Research's managing director, Tim Morris, said the privately owned Aldi had underplayed its ambitions in Australia. "If they say something to the press, you can probably double it," he said. "If they are talking about 400 to 500 stores they are probably thinking 1000 stores."
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
The Leading Edge's Future Retail Conference in Sydney, Australia featured Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris presenting on potential future directions for the Australasian retail environment in a presentation titled "Australasian Supermarket Industry: Backwater, Behemoth or Beachhead."
This provocative and highly relevant presentation is available for download here. .
Friday, May 16, 2008
"Retail analyst Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, said clothing retailers appear to have not been hit as hard as other sectors in the latest Statistics NZ figures.
Clothing retailing fell 5.9 per cent, but appliance retailing, and furniture and floor coverings suffered harder falls, down 15.2 per cent and 10.8 per cent respectively.
Morris said there were multiple streams in clothing retailing.
"If you've got a job, you've got to wear tidy clothes to go to work and they only last so long, so there's some pieces in that that are almost non-discretionary. There's other bits that are retail therapy ... It is a discretionary spend, but certainly it hasn't shown any evidence of slowing as quickly as some of the other areas."
The turnaround in retailers' overall fortunes has been swift, said Morris. He cited appliance retailing, which only recorded its first fall in sales in September last year. That fall was just 1.7 per cent. In March, the fall was 15.4 per cent.
"We're not talking about a small movement of a per cent here or a per cent there," he said.
All sectors - apart from supermarkets and grocery retailing, cafe and restaurants, and automotive fuel - were charting falls.
"It's tough times out there in retailing and certainly from the look of this data, it looks like it's getting worse not better."
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
"Slow food prices only a reprive... Coriolis Research managing director Tim Morris said the smaller rise could be a side-effect of the New Zealand dollar coming off historic highs, meaning we pay less for imports.
He said competition resulting from rising prices might also be helping: "As a professor of mine once said to me, the best cure for high prices is high prices.
"I think there's been something of a perfect storm recently with increasing global dairy prices, the lag effect [of market conditions], droughts and increasing input prices," Mr Morris said. But as always, New Zealand was "a small fish in a big ocean" and at the mercy of global market trends."
Note: Just to correct the reporters notes, Journalism not being Economics, theory suggests a fall in the NZ$ relative to the US$ would increase the price of imports (assuming the import price was denominated in US$). The missing sentence discusses the fall in global dairy and meat prices from their recent high. The impact of the falling New Zealand dollar on both the domestic and world prices of major New Zealand exports, such as dairy products, is a subject too long to discuss here.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Radio New Zealand National Radio's Morning Report interviewed Coriolis Research Managing Director Tim Morris on increasing food prices and the impact on consumers.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Australasian retail phenomenon EziBuy was the subject of a recent New Zealand Herald article titled "Australia promises Ezi path to higher sales."
"EziBuy chief executive Mary Devine aims to boost turnover from $260 million to $350 million in the next three years, thanks largely to the potential market in Australia. One source of growth will be Ezibuy's recent purchase of Max Fashion, the
womenswear chain that has an estimated turnover of $60 million...
Coriolis Research retail analyst Tim Morris is excited about the Max purchase and sees it as a sign of things to come. "Max was a very good move for EziBuy now that they have got scale. It's logical for them to do more and more concepts," he says, adding that Max has given EziBuy access to a set of different demographics. "If they can make Max work, the world's their oyster," he says. If they demonstrate that they can add value, he believes there will be more acquisitions like it. "EziBuy is a great New Zealand success story but because it is privately owned and operating out of Palmerston North, you don't hear about it," he adds."
An archive of our past news is available here.
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