Welcome to Coriolis Research
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Market Research and Management Consulting |
Coriolis Research Ltd. is a market research and strategic management consulting firm providing quantitative and qualitative research to clients in the food and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) supply chain, from primary producers to retailers and foodservice providers. Areas of expertise include food, beverages, health and beauty aids, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, household products, paper products, and selected consumer durables.
Coriolis Research is based in Auckland, New Zealand and provides services to clients in New Zealand, Australia, South East Asia and the United States.
For our sister company, Coriolis Healthcare, click here.
Information about our reports is available here...
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Radio Live's Bill Ralston interviewed Coriolis Research's Tim Morris about the ongoing period of food price inflation New Zealand is experiencing.
As we have been getting a large number of calls from our friends in the media about food price inflation, we prepared a small number of charts to bring some perspective to the issue.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Today's Foodweek quotes Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris in "Unit pricing is the industry concession to see off latest grocery inquiry" :
"The streamlined planning laws make some sense... Landbanking is not really such an issue in Australia. As Tim Morris, MD of Coriolis Research, told a recent retail forum in Sydney, you have a major problem in the UK where it is difficult to find new supermarket sites that don’t involve knocking over a 13th century church.
The only market in Australia that suffers from physical constraints is Sydney. Urban renewal is costly and problematic, especially where local planning authorities are involved, but the major retailers have not been inclined to amass landbanks a la Tesco here."
Just to set the record straignt, Tim claims he actualls said: "There isn't really any lack of usable land in Australia, unlike say the U.K., where you can't swing a cat without knocking down a 13th Century church." We're not sure which quote is better..
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The Port Macquarie station of Australia's ABC radio interviewed Coriolis MD Tim Morris on "How Supermarkets Work." Discussion included what gets ranged, what gets specialed and what goes on end aisle displays.
Friday, May 23, 2008
In an article titled "History points to a sitting Dux" today's Sydney Morning Herald quoted Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris speaking about Woolworth's trial concept Dux the Grocer.
"IF HISTORY is any guide, Woolworths' new upmarket grocery spin-off, Thomas Dux, will fail, a retail expert has said. Tim Morris, from Coriolis Research in Auckland, told industry colleagues this week no "middle market" retailer in the world had made a success of an upmarket, small-format store. The offshoot, combining a delicatessen and fruit and vegetable providore, would have to buck the trend of mass-market retailers failing to appeal to upmarket tastes.
Mr Morris said Thomas Dux was an example of the two major grocery retailers' "scramble to find growth" since consolidation of the market had left few acquisition opportunities.
Coles and Woolworths had 76 per cent of the grocery, convenience and liquor market, he said. "I don't think Thomas Dux will work for them. The middle market retailers that have tried to go upmarket didn't succeed."
Mr Morris compared the move to that of US chain Safeway's launch of upmarket providore Bon Appetit in California in the 1980s. "[Safeway management] couldn't think upmarket because they were mid-market," he said. The ill-fated chain, which was linked with a gourmet magazine of the same name, sold fine foods rarely found in supermarkets as well as tableware, aprons and cookbooks. Mr Morris said Woolworths' rival Coles was not expected to follow with a similar format. "They don't have the appetite for it right now," he said.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
The Australian Associated Press quoted Coriolis Research Managing Director Tim Morris in an article titled "Third force to enter supermarket sector."
Coriolis Research chief executive Tim Morris told conference delegates, the Australian market is the second most concentrated in the world after New Zealand. NZ has only two key players - Woolworths and Foodstuffs NZ Ltd.
According to NZ-based Coriolis, Woolworths has a 40 per cent share of the Australasian grocery market share across convenience, liquor and supermarkets (excluding petrol). This outstripped rival Coles, with 26 per cent, followed by Metcash on 14 per cent, Foodstuffs on seven per cent and Germany's Aldi on two per cent.
Mr Morris said there were barriers to further consolidation in the Australasian supermarket sector, including the current ownership structure of retailers, government and regulatory hurdles, as well as few potential takeover targets.
But Aldi, which has been operating in Australia since 2001, could be a potential third player. Aldi has a three per cent Australian market share with 160 stores and aims to roll out up to 650 stores.
Mr Morris said other European low cost supermarket chains, such as Germany's Lidl or Denmark's Netto, could follow in Aldi's footsteps to Australia. "So far it is just Aldi but if I were Aldi's number two I would be making a move," he said. "Aldi has achieved success in Australia relative to some of its other markets and it can continue to grow."
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Today's Sydney Morning Herald featured an article titled "Aldi biting into the grocery market" In that article Coriolis's Tim Morris presentation to the Future Retail conference was quoted.
"The German retailer Aldi is aiming for up to 1000 stores in Australia, which would give it about 15 per cent of the grocery market, said the head of a company that specialises in helping food companies with growth strategies. Speaking on the future of retail at a conference in Sydney yesterday, Coriolis Research's managing director, Tim Morris, said the privately owned Aldi had underplayed its ambitions in Australia. "If they say something to the press, you can probably double it," he said. "If they are talking about 400 to 500 stores they are probably thinking 1000 stores."
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
The Leading Edge's Future Retail Conference in Sydney, Australia featured Coriolis Managing Director Tim Morris presenting on potential future directions for the Australasian retail environment in a presentation titled "Australasian Supermarket Industry: Backwater, Behemoth or Beachhead."
This provocative and highly relevant presentation is available for download here. .
Friday, May 16, 2008
"Retail analyst Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, said clothing retailers appear to have not been hit as hard as other sectors in the latest Statistics NZ figures.
Clothing retailing fell 5.9 per cent, but appliance retailing, and furniture and floor coverings suffered harder falls, down 15.2 per cent and 10.8 per cent respectively.
Morris said there were multiple streams in clothing retailing.
"If you've got a job, you've got to wear tidy clothes to go to work and they only last so long, so there's some pieces in that that are almost non-discretionary. There's other bits that are retail therapy ... It is a discretionary spend, but certainly it hasn't shown any evidence of slowing as quickly as some of the other areas."
The turnaround in retailers' overall fortunes has been swift, said Morris. He cited appliance retailing, which only recorded its first fall in sales in September last year. That fall was just 1.7 per cent. In March, the fall was 15.4 per cent.
"We're not talking about a small movement of a per cent here or a per cent there," he said.
All sectors - apart from supermarkets and grocery retailing, cafe and restaurants, and automotive fuel - were charting falls.
"It's tough times out there in retailing and certainly from the look of this data, it looks like it's getting worse not better."
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
"Slow food prices only a reprive... Coriolis Research managing director Tim Morris said the smaller rise could be a side-effect of the New Zealand dollar coming off historic highs, meaning we pay less for imports.
He said competition resulting from rising prices might also be helping: "As a professor of mine once said to me, the best cure for high prices is high prices.
"I think there's been something of a perfect storm recently with increasing global dairy prices, the lag effect [of market conditions], droughts and increasing input prices," Mr Morris said. But as always, New Zealand was "a small fish in a big ocean" and at the mercy of global market trends."
Note: Just to correct the reporters notes, Journalism not being Economics, theory suggests a fall in the NZ$ relative to the US$ would increase the price of imports (assuming the import price was denominated in US$). The missing sentence discusses the fall in global dairy and meat prices from their recent high. The impact of the falling New Zealand dollar on both the domestic and world prices of major New Zealand exports, such as dairy products, is a subject too long to discuss here.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Radio New Zealand National Radio's Morning Report interviewed Coriolis Research Managing Director Tim Morris on increasing food prices and the impact on consumers.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Australasian retail phenomenon EziBuy was the subject of a recent New Zealand Herald article titled "Australia promises Ezi path to higher sales."
"EziBuy chief executive Mary Devine aims to boost turnover from $260 million to $350 million in the next three years, thanks largely to the potential market in Australia. One source of growth will be Ezibuy's recent purchase of Max Fashion, the
womenswear chain that has an estimated turnover of $60 million...
Coriolis Research retail analyst Tim Morris is excited about the Max purchase and sees it as a sign of things to come. "Max was a very good move for EziBuy now that they have got scale. It's logical for them to do more and more concepts," he says, adding that Max has given EziBuy access to a set of different demographics. "If they can make Max work, the world's their oyster," he says. If they demonstrate that they can add value, he believes there will be more acquisitions like it. "EziBuy is a great New Zealand success story but because it is privately owned and operating out of Palmerston North, you don't hear about it," he adds."
Monday, November 5, 2007
Global retailer Tesco has opened it's first Fresh & Easy store in the United States market. Readers of our recently revised Tesco Case Study will, of course, have already been expecting this move.
Tesco has "kicked the tires" and rejected buying a number of Australasian retailers - Coles, The Warehouse, Woolworths NZ FAL and Progressive to name a few. If Tesco makes Fresh & Easy work in the United States, it could use a similar strategy to enter either Australia or New Zealand organically. The huge success Aldi is experiencing in Australia will certainly encourage them.
More available on the Tesco Fresh & Easy blog.
The Financial Times of London also has an informative video - available here - that is recommended viewing.
Monday, November 29th, 2007
ENZA/Turners and Growers made a presentation at the Eurofruit Southern Hemisphere Congress in Buenos Aires in November 2007. In their presentation, titled "The Challenges Facing New Zealand Fruit Growers," they used material from our research for Pipfruit New Zealand.
Readers should feel free to use material from any Coriolis Research documents, though we do appreciate a citation.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Though it has been an open secret in the industry for a long time, three years after we told you about it (in our Chart Watch Q2 2004 newsletter), it's now official! American warehouse club chain Costco today announced in their Q4 2007 conference call with analysts that they were opening stores in Australia in the next 12 months.
Costco CFO Richard Galanti said: "I guess it's pretty much public knowledge. we'll be going into Australia over the next year. But again, we're going to start with - if history repeats itself in the U.K. and any of the three Asian countries, don't expect to see more than a couple of units to start with."
If the success of Aldi is anything to go by, Costco will be a huge success. We are in the process of updating our Costco report, which will be of huge interest to both manufacturers and retailers and which will be available for purchase shortly.
UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald is reporting Costco may open up to 5 stores in Australia next year. Our sources tell us Costco has more than 8 sites in a landbank.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Radio New Zealand National Radio's Morning Report interviewed Coriolis Research Managing Director Tim Morris on the move by Charlie's beverages to launch a range of natural sodas and the global move towards more healthy beverage options.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
"Sustainable Simon of 95 bFM talks to Timothy Morris (of Coriolis Research) who has done extensive research into the NZ food industry, about Industrial Food vs. Industrial Trees. 58% of the NZ landmass is given over to Farming/ Forestry. NZ's economy is likely to be propped up and/or driven in the medium to long term by food and primary industry production. That's a lot of cow farts (methane) and cow poo and fertilizers (in the rivers etc). Tree monocultures (effectively Pine forests) are not too hot either, with the leeching of aluminum and nitrates into the soil. Is there a sustainable way forward?"
Also discussed was the growing New Zealand hippy deficit.
Friday, July 20, 2007
The New Zealand Commerce Commission released its decision declining the the applications for clearance of both Foodstuffs New Zealand and Woolworths Australia to acquire The Warehouse. Regular readers will be excited to know the decision cited our company newsletter from June of last year. The complete decision is available here.
Friday, June 8, 2007
In an article titled "NZ Regulator Blocks Bids for Retailer Warehouse" Reuters said: "New Zealand's competition regulator on Friday blocked two suitors for The Warehouse Group Ltd. from launching bids, sending shares in the retailer to nine-month lows as a protracted battle for control loomed...
The New Zealand grocery market now faces a long period of uncertainty, said Tim Morris, a retail industry analyst with Coriolis Research. "There's not going to be a white knight arrive tomorrow, this is going to take a long time to sort out," he said...
Morris at Coriolis said the biggest winner from the decision was Foodstuffs, whose primary aim was to prevent Woolworths from gaining control of The Warehouse.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
"But Tim Morris of consulting and research firm Coriolis said yesterday that the move into fresh food retailing was the only way The Warehouse could keep growing its business. "The Warehouse has got a huge share - 44 per cent - of the discount department-store market. That side of the business has flattened out," he said.
"Nobody is going to tell you that department stores are the market of the future. The Warehouse have saturated that market. If they don't go into food, there is nowhere else to go," Mr Morris said... "If you wanted to maximise the amount of money next week, stopping the food thing might make sense."
But otherwise, the only way The Warehouse would get growth in the next decade was through continuing the food strategy, he said."
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
"Australia's biggest retailer could also do a deal with the ultimate buyer of Coles' everyday needs business to secure the Kmart stores in New Zealand and establish a base for opening stores and rolling out a general merchandise chain replicating Big W. "If they opened their chequebook today they could have a meaningful number of stores within the next five years," a New Zealand retail consultant at Coriolis Research, Tim Morris, said. "It would be a sensible buy for them and . . . Coles would probably be willing to look at selling."
Friday, June 1, 2007
"Woolworths has stepped up its campaign for regulatory clearance to make a full $2 billion bid for The Warehouse Group amid growing fears the New Zealand Commerce Commission may block any deal... New Zealand retail consultant Tim Morris, of Coriolis Research, also believes the
postponements reflect the NZCC's concerns. "The longer it drags on, the more likely that they are building up a stronger case for saying no. Because when they say no they're going to end up in court," said Mr Morris, whose 2006 report on the impact of The Warehouse's move into groceries has been cited by several parties involved in the commission's inquiries."
An archive of our past news is available here.
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